Alarm bells for Boris as Red Wall support slumps

Alarm bells were ringing for Boris Johnson today after a poll suggested he is on track to see his majority halved.

The in-depth YouGov research found backing for the Tories has plunged by seven points since the 2019 election.

They are now only marginally ahead of Labour in 50 crucial battleground seats across the North, Midlands and Wales, on 41 per cent to 40 per cent. 

Using the MRP model that performed well in the last two elections, the experts concluded that Mr Johnson could lose 18 of the constituencies if an election was held immediately, and a further 14 were too close to call. 

That would reduce his Commons majority to 44 – still enough for a functional government but a significant fall from the current 80. 

The polling was conducted up to September 28, meaning it reflects some of the backlash over the energy crisis and shortages. 

Apart from the hit to Mr Johnson in his pandemic-hit first two years, the results underline the scale of the challenge Keir Starmer faces to get back in contention.

Labour’s support is still 10 points down on that recorded by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.

And the Greens are on 7 per cent, suggesting voters are not flowing directly to Sir Keir’s party. 

Patrick English, YouGov political research manager, told the Times: ‘Seat losses to Labour are a result of a decline in the Conservative vote but do not represent a recovery in the Labour vote share, which is largely unchanged since 2019. 

‘That suggests that Labour’s position remains tenuous too, and that the Tories still have the chance to bring Red Wall voters and seats back into the fold.’