Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver the Albanese Labor government’s first budget on October 25.
* Budget deficits forecast for the next four years
* Budget in 2021/22 improved on previous forecasts to come in at $32 billion in deficit
* Debt continues to grow, standing at $892.3b as of October 14
* Net impact of Labor election commitments over four years at election time, as assessed by the Parliamentary Budget Office, was a $6.9b deepening of the deficit
* Extra receipts of $10.4b over forward estimates
* Extra payments of $15.8b over forward estimates
* Commodity price forecasts are expected to show eased revenues from the previous year
* Spending is expected to be higher, with pensions and other welfare payments rising due to indexation
* Other major areas of spending are NDIS, health, aged care and defence
* The cost of servicing government debt is expected to grow by 14 per cent each year in the next four years, NDIS spending by 12.1 per cent, health by 6.1 per cent and defence by 4.4 per cent
* The government will gradually raise paid parental leave from 18 to 26 weeks by 2026
* The cheaper childcare package announced ahead of the election will cost $5.1b over the forward estimates
* The aged care reforms will cost $2.5b
* Cutting the PBS general co-payment to $30 will cost $104.3m in 2022/23 or close to $770m over four years
* $2.4b equity investment in NBN over four years to expand fibre broadband access to 1.5 million premises by 2025
* The electric car discount will cost $54.3m in 2022/23
* Four large commitments will not be in the underlying cash balance (they will be in the headline cash balance, costing around $40.5b in total): Powering Australia – Rewiring the Nation, Help to Buy, National Reconstruction Fund and Housing Australia Future Fund
* Another 20,000 university places will cost $96.1m in 2022/23
* $150m contribution to Cairns marine precinct with other half funded by the Queensland government
* $15 million for free mental health and financial counselling support for small businesses
* Disaster-ready fund will cost $29.4m in 2022/23
* Strengthening Medicare GP grants will cost $198m in 2022/23
* $96.4m extra aid for the Pacific has been promised for 2022/23
* $100m has been promised towards restoring funding for the homelands, Indigenous spending, plus $22.9m for Indigenous health in 2022/23
* An extra $20.9m in 2022/23 has been flagged for the ABC
* $144m has been promised for the schools upgrade fund in 2022/23
* The fee-free TAFE policy will cost $112m in 2022/23
* The student wellbeing boost measures $201.5m in 2022/23
* Extending and boosting existing ATO programs will result in a $3.1b improvement over forward estimates (PBO)
* Plans to ensure multinationals pay their fair share of tax will result in a $1.9 billion improvement over the forward estimates
* $88.5m for 2022/23 to be returned from the Great Barrier Reef Foundation
* An additional $204m for the Great Barrier Reef to address gaps in the Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan and speed-up Reef protection activities
* Savings from reducing public service spending on contractors, consultants and labour hire companies would reduce payments by $3 billion over the forward estimates. Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has also flagged the creation of an in-house consulting model for the APS to reduce reliance on private consultancy firms and boost public service capabilities
* Road and rail infrastructure will be reprioritised from the March budget delivered by the Morrison government
* The government is no longer spending $3 billion over six months on the petrol excise cut now that the full tax has been reinstated
* Abolition of the cashless debit card has an unknown impact on the budget due to commercial in confidence
* Reducing uncommitted funding in the Community Development Grants Program and abolishing the Regionalisation Fund is expected to save $750m over forward estimates
* Abolition of the ABCC to save $140m over forward estimates
* Savings from advertising, travel and legal expenses expected to total $570m over the forward estimates
* An audit has found $6.4b over four years in extra spending required because of coalition government health and aged care programs left unfunded, capital works blowouts and “zombie” measures unlikely to ever be legislated.
* $900m over four years for Pacific region support and a new Pacific Engagement Visa to allow up to 3000 Pacific island and East Timor nations to permanently migrate to Australia
* $470m increase in aid for Southeast Asia, and an economic strategy for the region
* Grants of $50m over three years to support early-stage critical minerals projects
* Changes to stage three tax cuts in the federal budget have been ruled out. The cuts are legislated for introduction in 2024, taxing all income between $45,000 and $200,000 at 30 per cent. The tax cuts are expected to cost $243.5b over 10 years.
(Based on Labor election promises and pre-budget announcements.)