Whisper this softly, but we might just be falling out of love with film awards. The television ratings for last weekend’s Bafta awards were the lowest for 12 years, which, given that the coverage was recorded and you could have discovered the winners online some time before they were ‘revealed’ on TV, is perhaps not surprising.
But tonight’s Oscar ceremony, the 92nd Academy Awards, has also been brought significantly forward in the calendar in an attempt to reverse declining ratings. Will it work? Well, it just might as, historically at least, people tend to tune in when a really popular film that has done serious commercial business at the box office is expected to win.
Joker leads the field with 11 nominations and has taken more than $1 billion at the global box office. But among bookmakers it’s currently languishing as fourth favourite for Best Picture, behind Sam Mendes’s 1917, Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite, but ahead of one of my favourites, Nazi-era comedy Jojo Rabbit.
Joker ’s star, Joaquin Phoenix (above), who won the Bafta for Best Actor, is odds-on to repeat that success tonight. The film has 11 nominations in total
More promisingly, Joker’s star, Joaquin Phoenix, who won the Bafta for Best Actor, is odds-on to repeat that success tonight.
If he doesn’t, and given that Robert De Niro wasn’t even nominated for The Irishman, I’d love to see either Leonardo DiCaprio win for Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood or Jonathan Pryce for his performance as Pope Francis in The Two Popes. If Pryce’s co-star, Anthony Hopkins, were also to win in the Best Supporting category, there really would be dancing the length and breadth of Wales.
Still, I expect Brad Pitt – so often the bridesmaid but never the bride at acting awards – to get in the way of that double. Given that he’s already won the Bafta and Golden Globe, it seems to be his year.
I expect Brad Pitt (above with Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon A Time…) – so often the bridesmaid but never the bride at awards – to take home the Best Supporting Actor gong
British film fans thinking of staying up to watch the ceremony live may like to bear in mind that there’s a real possibility of the four main acting awards going the same way they did for the Baftas, thanks to Bafta members’ willingness to vote for American stars in a way that American Academy members… er, don’t always reciprocate.
In which case, Renée Zellweger and Laura Dern should have their already well-rehearsed acceptance speeches to hand. Dern, as the daughter of two film stars, Bruce Dern and Diane Ladd, is pretty much Hollywood royalty, and is surely a shoo-in for her wonderful supporting performance as a divorce lawyer in Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story.
But while I loved Zellweger’s portrayal of Judy Garland in Judy, I certainly wouldn’t shed a tear if Academy voters voted a little more imaginatively when it comes to Best Actress. In a year when Bafta members have been reprimanded by their royal patron for not recognising diversity – both when it comes to gender and ethnicity – it would be wonderful (and send a powerful message) if Oscar voters recognised Cynthia Erivo’s performance in the slave drama Harriet.
While I loved Renée Zellweger’s portrayal of Judy Garland in Judy (above), I certainly wouldn’t shed a tear if Academy voters voted a little more imaginatively when it comes to Best Actress
The problem is, Zellweger’s performance is exactly the sort of performance that wins Oscars (lots of big acting, playing one of Hollywood’s own), while the London-born Erivo’s performance (strong, defiant, non-people-pleasing) is exactly the sort that should win but… doesn’t.
Still, if she doesn’t win, Erivo does at least stand some chance of picking up a consolation prize, given that the song she co-wrote and performed for Harriet has also been nominated in the Best Original Song category.
Elsewhere, do keep an eye on Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite. It’s extremely unusual for a foreign language film to pick up six nominations, including Best Director, but this skilfully crafted Korean offering has become a firm awards night favourite ever since winning the Palme d’Or in Cannes last May. It surely won’t go away empty-handed.