Remainer-backing tactical voters could BOOT OUT Tory Brexiteer big beasts Dominic Raab, Theresa Villiers and Iain Duncan Smith on Thursday
- All four are Brexit -supporting MPs in seats that backed Remain in 2016
- Villiers in on course to lose Chipping Barnet to Labour
- Raab and IDS slim leads in Esher and Walton, and Chingford and Wood Green
Boris Johnson could lose two of his most senior Brexiteer ministers at the general election, a shock analysis reveals today.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers could both be booted out by voters tomorrow.
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and ex-minister John Redwood also face a nervous wait to see if they will be returned to the Commons, according to the YouGov MRP survey.
All four are Brexit-supporting MPs representing southern England constituencies that backed Remain in 2016.
Dominic Raab is in trouble in his Esher and Walton seat in Surrey, which voted 58 – 42 for Remain in 2016
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith is in trouble in Chingford and Wood Green, which narrowly backed Remain in 2016
Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers is on course to lose her Chipping Barnet seat, which voted 59-41 to Remain in 2016
Ms Villiers is the most at threat. She is two points behind her Labour opponent Emma Whysall in her Chipping Barnet seat in North London.
Mr Raab (Esher and Walton) and Mr Duncan Smith (Chingford and Wood Green) have seen their leads over Labour and the Lib Dems cut to the point where an upset is possible. They are two and three points ahead respectively.
A YouGov spokesman said: ‘Chingford and Wood Green has been a safe Tory seat since it was created in 1997.
‘But with demographic changes and other local factors the comfortable advantage they had has changed.
Current results now show a two-point lead for the Conservatives (47 per cent versus Labour’s 45).
‘In 2017 Dominic Raab won Esher and Walton with a majority of over 23,000.
Ex-minister John Redwood also faces a nervous wait to see if he will be returned to the Commons, according to the YouGov MRP survey
This constituency also voted Remain at the 2016 EU Referendum.
The model shows that tactical voting is producing a shift towards the Lib Dems, with the party now on 44 per cent and closing the gap on the Conservatives (46 per cent).’
Boris Johnson is on course to win the general election with a majority of 28, but his lead over Labour has more than halved in the final weeks of the campaign, according to the polling analysis which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017.
YouGov’s final MRP model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15.
The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent.
The forecast suggests the race has tightened since the previous MRP results on November 27 showed the Tories on course for a majority of 68.
YouGov warned that the margin of error could put the Tory seat total as low as 311, which would mean another hung parliament.